Methodological Contribution to the Analysis of Election Results in Party Strongholds

Abstract

Regular elections are at the heart of every democratic constitutional order. Particularly in the last three decades electoral studies have increasingly established themselves within the field of political sciences and now play an important role in media and press coverage prior to elections and in the analysis of election results. In this analysis the results in party strongholds are of particular interest to researchers. Based on data of the election to the German State Parliament of Hesse in 2008 and of the election to the German Bundestag in 2005 this article aims at answering the question whether the losses of all big democratic parties in their strongholds are a serious and alarming matter or whether to a certain extend these losses can be explained by regression-to-the-mean. Relevant statistical methods and models are introduced, applied and discussed.